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Experts are worried the US won’t achieve herd immunity from COVID-19

Source: Shannon Stapleton, Reuters

Having lived through a pandemic for more than a year, we all are understandably eager to get back to normal life.
The exact severity and scope of the COVID-19 pandemic has been changing ever since the virus first appeared and estimates of infections and deaths have fluctuated dramatically.
The entire time, medical experts have cautioned that things wouldn’t begin returning to normal until countries reached something called herd immunity.

Is herd immunity achievable?

The safest way to achieve herd immunity is by having everyone get vaccinated.
Vaccines kick-start a person’s immune system so that it recognizes a virus – for instance, COVID-19 – and can fight that virus when you encounter it.
With millions of people being vaccinated in the United States (and around the globe), for a while it was looking like the US was going to achieve herd immunity.
But herd immunity for COVID-19 will require something like 70-90% of the population to be immune to the virus.
That’s where the problem lies.

There are multiple reasons herd immunity may be unrealistic, according to some health experts.
But the main reason is that millions of Americans refuse to get vaccinated.
And yes, while most of the country has now received either one or both shots, or are simply waiting their turn, there are a whole lot of Americans who have no intention of getting vaccinated at all.
The Biden administration is hopeful that 70% of the adult population will have had at least one shot by the summer.
But that likely won’t be enough.
Recent polls have found that around 30% of adults are hesitant or just flat out against the idea of getting the vaccine.
The reasons for this range from health concerns about the safety of a new vaccine to more conspiratorial fears, like the discredited theory that Bill Gates has loaded vaccines with microchips … or something.
Whatever their reason, if only 70% of the population is vaccinated, that is almost definitely not going to be enough for the US to reach herd immunity.

Even in the best-case scenario where at least 70% of the total population – adults and children – were vaccinated, herd immunity still might not happen.
That’s because COVID-19 is evolving.
Viruses evolve and mutate all the time – it’s just a normal part of their life cycle.
Think of the flu and how new variants pop up all the time. It’s the reason we regularly see headlines like, “This year’s flu season may be a bad one.”
It’s also why scientists are constantly developing new flu vaccines, to combat new variants.
That same phenomenon is happening with COVID-19, but at an even faster rate because the virus is so widespread.
With countries like India experiencing a surge of infections, new variants are basically inevitable. Every newly infected person has the potential to be a breeding ground for a new variant.
So far, the vaccines have proved to be effective against almost all variants we have seen.
But, so long as the virus is still spreading in a large population, there is always the chance a new variant could prove resistant to the vaccine.

Like the flu, COVID-19 will likely continue to spread through the population indefinitely.
The good news is herd immunity may no longer be the only way to achieve normalcy.
Instead of eradicating the virus, the US just needs to get enough people vaccinated so they’ll be immune to it so that hospitals and medical workers aren’t overwhelmed.
As long as the most vulnerable populations are vaccinated and anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, normal life will return sooner or later.·
Who knows? Future generations may talk about the COVID pandemic the same way we discuss the 1918 influenza pandemic.

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