Biden’s military position put to test as struggle for power escalates in Haiti

Speaking to TMS, professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University Dr. Lauren Wright, says that there doesn’t appear to be many clear net-positive options for troop deployment in Haiti.

What’s going on in Haiti right now?

• On July 7, Haiti’s leader, President Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated.

• Right now, it isn’t clear who organized the assassination, but 20 of the people involved with the killing have been arrested, three have been killed and five are still on the run.

• The assassination has brought on chaos in the country, with no one sure who’s supposed to be in charge.

• Just days before his death, President Moïse had appointed a new prime minister, but he wasn’t set up to take over yet. So, now there is a struggle for power over who is meant to be taking over between the previous interim prime minister and the prime minister chosen by Moïse.

• After a day full of arrests by the Haitian police, on July 9, the Haitian government issued a request to President Biden to supply American troops to protect critical infrastructure in the country.

What was Haiti’s situation like prior to the assassination?

• Since Haiti’s liberation from the French in 1803, the country has pretty much been going through cycles of coup d’etats, military juntas and dictatorships.

• In recent decades, cholera outbreaks and earthquakes have brought in large humanitarian donations from around the world, but have been mostly wasted over the eight years because of embezzlement and financial foul play.

• And, amid all of that instability, the United States has often had to to step in.

• In 1915, US President Woodrow Wilson sent in American troops after the Haitian president was assassinated, leading to two decades of US occupation.

• And in 1994, with the help of American troops, the first democratically elected president was reinstated, just before being removed again by an armed uprising in 2000 after his reelection.

What are Biden’s options?

• Biden has been working on bringing troops home from overseas, namely pulling troops out of Afghanistan after their 20-year occupation there.

• At the moment, the Biden administration as a whole doesn’t seem eager to send troops out to Haiti, with administration officials saying there aren’t any plans to deploy the military.

• With that said, the Biden administration has already sent officials from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to analyze the situation and help with the investigation into the assassination. But, the other problem Biden has to face is a possible refugee crisis if no military gets sent.

• A similar situation in the 1990s saw thousands of Haitians going to Florida to seek refuge in the US, and was reportedly a cornerstone reason for President Obama to send US$100 million in aid as well as troops to Haiti in 2010 after a massive earthquake.

• Biden has already faced criticism for his handling of the situation at the US-Mexico border, and a second refugee crisis could cause more humanitarian and political problems.

• Speaking to TMS, professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University Dr. Lauren Wright, says that there doesn’t appear to be many clear net-positive options for troop deployment in Haiti.

• “Biden’s approach in helping with the investigation into the assassination without granting troop request is a reflection of that.”

What’s next?

• The decision for Biden will likely be dependent on what gets found out by the FBI and DHS about who is behind the assassination of the Haitian president.

• According to Dr. Wright, public opinion may also sway Biden’s decision. “Americans are largely not supportive of U.S. military involvement in other countries right now for any reason, let alone one where the Pentagon says the national security risks to the U.S. are not evident.”

• However, Dr. Wright also notes that If Haiti grows increasingly unstable in the days ahead, the White House’s calculus could also change quickly.

• The other thing to watch for is exactly how the crisis between the prime ministers is handled.

• Whatever is decided, there is the possibility of conflict between the two men vying for the leadership role. This would likely cause things to spiral even more out of control in the country.

• Ultimately though, the decision is up to Biden. A military incursion in Haiti could avoid a refugee crisis. But without military deployment, the president may face a humanitarian crisis.

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