The Ukraine grain export deal is back on as Russia agrees to rejoin

Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest exporters of grain, but stocks have been piling up in the country since Russia invaded.

The Ukraine grain export deal is back on as Russia agrees to rejoin
Ships, including those carrying grain from Ukraine and awaiting inspections, are seen anchored off the Istanbul coastline on November 02, 2022. Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest exporters of grain, but stocks have been piling up in the country since Russia invaded. Russia has blocked shipments of grain in the Black Sea, contributing to the global food crisis. But, a few months back, the UN and Turkey worked out a deal with Russia to allow the shipments to resume. Then, Russia suddenly backed out of the deal this weekend, blaming Ukraine and the UK for drone attacks.

But, as the UN and Turkey continued with the shipments despite Russia’s disagreement, Moscow’s leverage seems to be limited. On Wednesday, Russia said it would rejoin the grain export deal and guarantee safe passage in the Black Sea for ships from Ukraine. This means the humanitarian corridor for Ukraine grain exports will not be used for military purposes.

After repeatedly stalling and pulling out of the deal, Russia created massive chaos in the crop market, growing global food supply concerns and pushing up crop prices. This news eased the world’s concerns about the global food shortage and also triggered a drop in wheat prices – Chicago wheat futures were down 6.7% on Wednesday. According to the UN, since Moscow agreed on the deal, 9.7 million tons of crops and food have been shipped, and the deal has indirectly prevented around 100 million people from going into extreme poverty.

Key comments:

“The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” said the Russian Ministry of Defense in an official statement.

“[The deal] is providing needed food to the world, so clearly Russia was finally convinced that they needed to continue this, they can’t stand in the way of feeding the entire world,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US Ambassador to the UN.  

“Putin wants to compel the West to negotiate with him as soon as possible to freeze the conflict, his direct proposals did not work, so he is resorting to other strategies like talking about Ukrainian dirty bomb, threatening nuclear escalation or pulling out from the grain deal…all to get them around the table with him,” said Oksana Antonenko, director at Control Risks in London. “So far it did not work and I think will not work, at least in the near future.”